據(jù)阿拉伯貿(mào)易網(wǎng)2023年2月16日利雅得報(bào)道，根據(jù)國(guó)際能源論壇(IEF)等發(fā)布的一份最新報(bào)告，今年全球上游石油和天然氣領(lǐng)域的年度投資需要增長(zhǎng)28%，達(dá)到6400億美元，以確保全球供應(yīng)充足。
報(bào)告稱，2022年全球上游石油和天然氣領(lǐng)域的資本支出比2021年增長(zhǎng)39%，至4990億美元，為2014年以來(lái)的最高水平，但由于通脹侵蝕了支出，鉆井行業(yè)的資本支出仍低于疫情前的水平。
報(bào)告補(bǔ)充說(shuō)，2022年全球在用鉆機(jī)數(shù)量增加了22%，但仍比2019年低10%。
IEF秘書長(zhǎng)約瑟夫·麥克莫尼格爾表示：“在我們加大對(duì)可再生能源的投資并追求能源轉(zhuǎn)型的同時(shí)，我們也需要增加對(duì)石油和天然氣的投資，以支持全球經(jīng)濟(jì)，保護(hù)每個(gè)人的生活質(zhì)量。”
麥克莫尼格爾指出，2022年的復(fù)蘇標(biāo)志著兩年來(lái)的變化，當(dāng)時(shí)由于疫情導(dǎo)致全球能源市場(chǎng)緊縮、價(jià)格飆升和天然氣短缺，資本支出大幅下降。
S&P Global副董事長(zhǎng)丹尼爾·尤金表示：“隨著可再生能源和低碳技術(shù)的擴(kuò)大，全球經(jīng)濟(jì)繼續(xù)需要充足且價(jià)格合理的碳?xì)浠衔锕?yīng)。”
“未來(lái)的能源必須是安全的、負(fù)擔(dān)得起的和可持續(xù)的。充分的投資，避免短缺和價(jià)格飆升，對(duì)未來(lái)能源安全至關(guān)重要。”
根據(jù)該報(bào)告，從現(xiàn)在到2030年，即使石油和天然氣需求增長(zhǎng)放緩，也需要累計(jì)4.9萬(wàn)億美元投資來(lái)滿足市場(chǎng)需求。
“正如我們?nèi)ツ晁吹降?，能源價(jià)格高企和波動(dòng)對(duì)世界各地的家庭產(chǎn)生了災(zāi)難性的影響，最貧窮的人受到的打擊最嚴(yán)重。石油和天然氣投資不足威脅著能源安全，并通過(guò)增加對(duì)碳密集型選項(xiàng)的依賴而阻礙氣候目標(biāo)的進(jìn)展。”麥克莫尼格爾評(píng)論道。
麥克莫尼格爾指出，如果消費(fèi)國(guó)希望支撐市場(chǎng)，它們需要就未來(lái)需求發(fā)出明確信號(hào)，建立并維持充足的庫(kù)存，支持長(zhǎng)期承購(gòu)合同，并防止出臺(tái)禁止性政策。
與此同時(shí)，報(bào)告指出，油氣生產(chǎn)商可以通過(guò)促進(jìn)投資來(lái)支持市場(chǎng)。
運(yùn)營(yíng)商需要一定程度的保證和財(cái)政確定性來(lái)投資資本密集型、長(zhǎng)周期的項(xiàng)目。隨著風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的演變，運(yùn)營(yíng)商在投入資本方面將越來(lái)越受到限制，或者需要更高的回報(bào)。
報(bào)告指出，未來(lái)的供應(yīng)必須明確一個(gè)可接受的目標(biāo)率，該目標(biāo)率要考慮到政策的不確定性、石油和天然氣價(jià)格的變化，以及越來(lái)越多的碳價(jià)格假設(shè)。
此外，政府應(yīng)該根據(jù)現(xiàn)實(shí)的能源需求前景制定政策，并確保在過(guò)渡期間提供充足和負(fù)擔(dān)得起的能源供應(yīng)。
李峻 編譯自 阿拉伯貿(mào)易網(wǎng)
原文如下：
$640bn investment needed in upstream oil, gas sector by 2030: Report
Annual upstream oil and gas investment needs to rise by 28% to reach $640 billion by 2030 to ensure adequate global supplies, according to a new report published by the International Energy Forum (IEF) and S&P Global Commodity Insights, the leading independent provider of information, analysis and benchmark prices for the commodities and energy markets.
Capital expenditure in 2022 rose by 39% from the previous year to $499 billion, the highest level since 2014, but drilling remained below pre-pandemic levels as inflation ate away at the spending, stated the report.
The number of drilling rigs rose by 22% in 2022, but this was still 10% below 2019 levels, it added.
Joseph McMonigle, Secretary General of the IEF, said: "While we ramp up investment in renewables and pursue the energy transition, we also need to lift investment in oil and gas to support the global economy, and protect the quality of life for everyone."
The recovery in 2022 marked a change from the previous two years, when capital expenditure slumped with the Covid-19 pandemic contributing to a tightening of global energy markets, price spikes and shortages of natural gas, noted McMonigle.
"The global economy continues to need adequate and reasonably priced hydrocarbon supply alongside the scaling up of renewables and low-carbon technologies," said Daniel Yergin, Vice Chairman of S&P Global.
"The energy future must be secure and affordable, as well as sustainable. Adequate investment that avoids shortages and prices spikes, and the economic hardship and social turbulence that they bring, is essential to that future," he added.
According to the report, cumulative $4.9 trillion will be needed from now until 2030 to meet market needs, even if the growth in oil and gas demand slows down.
"As we saw last year, high energy prices and volatility have disastrous effects on households all over the world, hitting the poorest people the hardest. Underinvestment in oil and gas threatens energy security and stalls progress on climate goals by increasing reliance on more carbon-intensive options," remarked McMonigle.
If consumer countries wish to support markets they would need to send clear signals about future demand, build and maintain sufficient inventories, support long-term offtake contracts, and prevent prohibitive policies, he noted.
Meanwhile, the report stated that producers can support markets by promoting investment.
Operators need a certain level of assurance and fiscal certainty to invest in capital-intensive, long-cycle projects. They will be increasingly constrained in committing capital, or will require higher returns to do so, as risks evolve.
Future supply must clear an acceptable hurdle rate that accounts for policy uncertainty, variable oil and gas prices, and, increasingly, carbon price assum
ptions, it stated.
Additionally, governments should base policies on realistic energy demand outlooks and to ensure adequate and affordable energy supplies during the transition, said the report.
